kgannett wrote:As per a crew member's wife, Ageless went south and got stuck in little or no air for a day or 2. Skipper got word of a tropical depression forming so he decided it was prudent to return.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH LITTLE
APPARENT MOVEMENT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT
22N80W TO 16N82W TO 10N82W WITH HINTS THAT A LOW MAY BE PRESENT
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N. THE GFS DOES
SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY
TO FORM. THERE EXISTS QUITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE NE PACIFIC ITCZ WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED
MONSOON TROUGH REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH LOW
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
REGARDLESS IF THIS DEVELOPS...SUBSTANTIAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
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